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The butterfly effect constrains long term planning of enterprise architecture management

Posted by Joerg G. Beyer on February 2, 2014
The butterfly effect constrains long term planning of enterprise architecture management
Managing IT architecture is comparable to a weather forecast and just as you know there are limits to it. Small changes in the original setting will significantly change the outcome in the long run – so called butterfly effect. Weather forecasts are detailed as never before and can consider huge amounts of information, but one thing has not changed: After three days you cannot be sure about its predictions.

Do enterprise architects need an umbrella?

Most enterprise architects seem convinced that high accuracy and a high level of detail will make it possible to predict and plan the application portfolio for several years. Looking back on it, most of the times the plan did not work as expected. Thus, we have to introduce one central goal to all application portfolio management: We need to be able to react to internal and external influences. Even if sunshine is predicted, it is possible that we need an umbrella eventually. We should not start to get prepared, when we are already standing in the rain.

Predicting with more accuracy

Merger, disinvestment, new markets, new products, new technologies, consumerization of IT, short development cycles etc. are predictable, since these developments shape IT portfolios since decades and will continue to do so. Let’s take a look at theiPad as an example: Only in 2010 has Steve Jobs introduced the iPad, but today tablets are already standard in a lot of areas. Plans made back in 2009 had to be updated only a short while afterwards. The problem is that we cannot know the area or the point in time when these influences occur. That’s what businesses have to be prepared for and enterprise architects can play an important role.

Enterprise architects should:
- value the importance of ongoing communication
- coordinate and align with stakeholder
- adjust planning and measurement to latest possibilities
- evaluate solutions according to their degree of agility

Main focus is to keep information up-to-date!

The central task of enterprise architects is not to extensively model and display all information. Instead they should focus on the evaluation of recent data, derive useful measures from it and think about ways of communicating these measures. Most of the times there is one weakness: Available data is outdated! This problem is even worse, if we rely on very complex and detailed data collection. Thus, data should always focus on the solution of a concrete problem. Most applied models have such a high degree of complexity that you need a lot of effort to keep them up-to-date. As a result, these models are not useful for our analysis and planning.

Less is more

leanIX brings two advantages to its clients: IT costs and complexity are reduced, while at the same time agility and IT business value increase. We constantly work together with our clients to improve leanIX in accordance with these goals. Sometimes discussions arise around the question of how detailed information should be gathered and how close to reality leanIX’ data model should be. Most tools try to be as detailed as possible. In contrast, leanIX aims to make it as easy as possible for the user to maintain data, while the display of data is meant to be as valuable and useful as possible.

Try to describe the influences you – as enterprise architect – had to react to in the past. Try to think about the information you have considered for your analysis and the degree of complexity and detail you have needed. I am sure you are surprised!

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